Thursday 6 July 2017

Nifty “Surged” By Another 23 Points Paring Intraday Gains Amid Sudden Global Bond Routs; GST & PSBS Optimism Helped The Indian Market



Market Wrap: 06/07/2017 (17:00)

NSE-NF (July): 9668 (+23; +0.24%) (TTM PE: 24.49; Near 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 18; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 9675)

NSE-BNF (July): 23473 (+72; +0.31%) (TTM PE: 29.52; Near 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 23466)

For 07/07/2017:

Key support for NF: 9675-9625

Key resistance for NF: 9725-9775


Key support for BNF: 23450-23300


Key resistance for BNF: 23575-23800


Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9725 area for further rally towards 9775-9835 & 9875-9915 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 9705-9675 area, NF may fall towards 9625-9575 & 9535-9485 & area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23575 area for further rally towards 23650-23800 & 23900-24050 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 23525-23450 area, BNF may fall towards 23300-23100 & 23000-22800 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Nifty Fut (July) today closed around 9688, almost 23 points up after making an opening session low of 9643 and late day high of 9703 boosted by smooth roll out of GST so far and Q1FY18 earnings optimism & smooth progress of SW monsoon coupled with some bargain hunting specially for the PSBS, which has corrected significantly from its recent high due to NPA concern.

But the Indian market pared the intraday gain quite swiftly in the last half an hour of trade tracking sudden fall in global/EU markets amid carnage in bond; specially JGB & German bund ahead of ECB minutes today. After FOMC minutes yesterday, market may be apprehending start of gradual B/S tapering (QT) from Sep’17 itself despite Fed may be divided and thus ECB & BOJ may have no other option but to follow the Fed QT tunes. Thus bond yields have surged today and global stocks are plummeting.

Earlier, Indian market may be expecting no QT by global central banks after a confused & divided FOMC minutes and thus was trading in an upbeat mood.

Most of the Asian Markets were trading lower today amid renewed NK geo-political concern, overnight slump in oil and a confused Fed; overnight US market (DJ-30) also closed almost flat (-0.01%) amid tepid economic data (factory orders) and dragged by energy related shares; but supported to some extent by rebound in tech shares. Although, headline factory data was very subdued, fine print was not so ugly and thus USD/US market also got some support.
FOMC minutes released yesterday reveals nothing new, which market does not know; it seems that Fed is quite divided & confused about timing of B/S tapering & next rate hike. But, it’s clear that Fed sees subdued US inflation as transitory and may be also very optimistic about US job market.

Overall, it now seems that Fed may start its gradual tapering from Sep’17 and may also hike once more in Dec’17, if incoming US economic data supports that; after FOMC minutes FFR is little changed at around 56% for a Dec rate hike by Fed.

Indian market also opened almost flat today tracking muted global cues; but getting some buying support from Banks/PSBS (SBI, BOB, PNB) for Govt recapitalization plan, deleveraging push & fresh capital raising despite concerns on NPA/IBC mechanism; FMCG/ITC is also upbeat after Govt clarified that Pre-GST stocks could be sold till Sep’17 as “clearance sale” (with some discount as par revised MRP).

Today Indian market also got some boost by a Fin ministry report that they were not in favour of changing the FY from April-March to Jan-Dec now as it will be involved various tax law changing for income tax as well as GST and has to be also passed various legislations; although FMO has now left it for the final decision of PMO.

Domestic market also got another boost, after Labour ministry indicated that EPFO fund may invest around Rs.45000 cr in the Indian stock market, mainly PSU ETF.

Looking ahead, apart from GST & Q1FY18 earnings, market may also focus on NPA/IBC resolution mechanism after Essar Steel got an interim stay from Gujarat HC against the whole process; there may be some apprehension that other large NPA borrowers may also approach HC and get similar stays against the RBI circular (IBC). In that scenario, the whole resolution process of NPA/IBC may be in doubt.

Technically, Nifty Fut (July), which is now need to stay over 9725 AREA for further rally; otherwise it may again come down.
Today Nifty was supported most by ITC, SBI, HDFC duo apart from Infratel (optimistic outlook & deleveraging), while it was dragged by Bajaj Auto, Hindalco & Grasim. Overall, today market was supported by Banks (PSBS), Auto & FMCG stocks.

Although, Indian market may be now quite relieved about smooth GST roll out, there are also various apprehensions in terms of some additional taxes being charged by some states like road taxes, car registration charges etc and that may make the market cautious in the days ahead.
Asian Market update:
Elsewhere, Australia (ASX-200) was almost flat at around 5762 dragged by Oil/energy related shares despite upbeat trade balance report today.

Japan (Nikkei-225) closed in red at 19978 (-0.51%) on strength of Yen as USDJPY goes lower, which is negative for export earnings prospect. Looking at the chart, Nikkei-225 now need to stay above 19800 zone for any rebound from here; otherwise expect more corrections towards 19500 area in the coming days.
China & Hong Kong also trading lower around -0.30% amid renewed geo-political concern over NK-US issues; although US yesterday threatened NK for a military action, if it further continues its Nuke capable ICBM test, market may be expecting some diplomatic resolution for this NK missile game in the G-20 meet & direct meeting between US & China/Russia.

It now seems that, in the complex world of geo-politics, both China & Russia may be concerned over US move to install the THAAD anti-missile system in SK and thus may be indirectly using NK to put pressure on US by testing an ICBM, which is capable to hit US mainland (Alaska); incidentally, China has good business relationship with NK.

Overall, it appears that US may not attack NK as it’s a nuke power and capable of hitting SK & Japan quite easily and thus Trump has to take help form China & Russia to solve this long standing issue; thus market reaction is so far calm.

In commodities space, Crude Oil (WTI) is now trading around 45.85, after yesterday’s big slump, now edged up by almost 1% after bigger than expected inventory drawdown from private US API report earlier today; market will now focus on the Govt EIA inventory report later in the day today.
European market update:

Meanwhile European stocks are trading lower and hit 11-weeks low after ECB minutes revealed that they have discussed to remove easing bias in the last June meeting with caveats of satisfactory inflation. This has caught the market in surprise as ECB clearly clarified some days ago that QT is not in the agenda and market misjudged Draghi’s inflation comments.

Subsequently, German 1OY bund yields surged above 18-months high along with similar surge in JGB and also in USTSY and consequently stocks plunged.

EU stocks also came into pressure after earnings/guidance downgrade by some blue chips including Reckitt & Sodexo; but banks & financials are upbeat on Coomerzbank M& news and some comments by the Italian FM that the Baking crisis in Italy may be over.
But rate sensitive stocks are under pressure on the prospect of an imminent QT (Quantitative Tightening) and rise in interest rates.

US market update: SPX-500 Plunged Below 2415 On ECB Hints Of QT & Slide In Global Bonds & Tech Shares; US Economic Data Also Came Subdued

US market (SPX-500/US-500) today plunged below vital support level of 2415 and made a LOD of around 2410 so far after ECB minutes revealed that they have discussed removing of easing bias in the June meeting, although it is subjected to satisfactory inflation. Hints of QT by ECB have ignited EU bund yields and EUR also has got strength; subsequently stocks are being hammered.

US Tech shares are also in renewed selling pressure as investors may be shifting from it to banks & financials on hopes of a higher interest rate regime & better NIM. Also, valuations of the US Tech shares may be quite stretched after almost 15% YTD rally this year so far.

US economic data released today may be also termed as subdued; ADP Nonfarm Payroll for June flashed as 158k against estimate of 185k (prior: 230k-R). Initial jobless claims also came a bit higher at 248k against estimate of 243k (prior: 244k). Trade balance also came bit softer at -46.50 bln against estimate of -46.20 bln (prior: -47.60 bln).

On the other side, US Service PMI for June flashed a bit higher at 54.2 against estimate of 53 (prior: 53) and ISM Non-Mfg PMI (June) also flashed upbeat at 57.4 against estimate of 56.5 (prior: 56.9).

Although, headline US service PMI & ISM-Non Mfg PMI came better, the fine print may not be so upbeat and underlying components may be also indicating a tepid US GDP & employment scenario.

Looking ahead, SPX-500 now need to stay above 2415 area; otherwise 2395-2385 zone may come soon.



SGX-NF


BNF


 SPX-500

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