Monday 17 July 2017

Nifty Consolidates To Close At Another Record High Tracking Mixed Global Cues And Q1 Earning Optimism; Rejection Of Essar IBC Relief Plea By Gujarat H.C. May Have Also Helped The Sentiment Later In The Day Today



Market Wrap: 17/07/2017 (17:00)

NSE-NF (July): 9934 (+34; +0.36%) (TTM PE: 25.10; Near 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 9916)

NSE-BNF (July): 24040 (+63; +0.28%) (TTM PE: 30.21; Near 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 24015)

For 18/07/2017:

Key support for NF: 9870-9760

Key resistance for NF: 9985-10005

Key support for BNF: 23900-23700

Key resistance for BNF: 24125-24250

Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10005 area for further rally towards 10050-10115 & 10195-10250 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 9985-9955 area, NF may fall towards 9890/9870-9790/9760 & 9715-9670 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24125 area for further rally towards 24250-24350 & 24450-24600 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 24075 area, BNF may fall towards 23900-23700 & 23600-23450 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Nifty Fut (July) today closed around 9934, almost 34 points up (+0.35%) after some closing session value buying / forced P-Notes FNO short covering tracking mixed global cues and reports that Gujarat HC has rejected the Essar steel petition seeking relief from RBI IBC/NPA case, which is being seen as a big victory for the NPA laden Indian Banks against big defaulters and may hasten the overall resolution process; although logically, the case may be dragged on to the SC, killing more times.

Indian market (Nifty-Fut) today opened around 9926, almost 26 points gap up tracking mixed global/Asian cues; but soon after opening succumbed to some selling pressure on concern of stretched valuations and made an opening session low of 9906 to fill the overnight gap and then made a late day high of 9943 supported by value buying/short covering and Q1FY18 earning optimism.

Although Indian market is now at a striking distance to conquer the 10k Nifty Mt’ Everest on the back of positive global cues, power of liquidity, hopes of an Aug cut by RBI, forced short covering by P-notes FNO, good monsoon, incremental reforms by the Govt, ultimately earnings need to catch up with the stretched valuations, which is being elusive for the last few years despite various green shoots narratives.

Some, market participants may be also worried for India’s tepid banking credit growth around 6%, slow private capex and poor capacity utilizations of around 70% due to subdued demand/consumer spending and on top of it the unresolved legacy issues of India’s twin B/S (banks & corporates), which is still marred with regulations & red tapes and actual resolution may take significant time, if any.

Nifty was today supported by Oil & Gas, IT, some Private Banks, RIL (R-Jio optimism), Grasim & Ultratech (listing of Aditya Birla Capital) and Wipro (buy back proposal).

But, Nifty was dragged by FMCG, Pharma (pessimistic outlook by the US rating agency S&P) and PSBS (consolidation buzz from the Govt may be bad for big PSBS); but PSBS was later reversed due to favourable Essar verdict; Coal India, Yes Bank and Axis Bank were also under pressure.

Notably ITC is now down by around 3.65% dragging the Nifty significantly after news that Govt may impose cess on the Cigarettes after recent optimism about favourable GST rates on it. ICICI Bank is up today (+1.27%) after buzz of IPO for its insurance subsidiary (ICICI Lombard deleveraging).

On the broader market Fortis & Religare were under severe pressure after reported news of NCD interest payment default by the parents/promoters (Singh Brothers).

Looking ahead, Nifty Fut (July) has to sustain above 9985-10005 area for any further rally; otherwise it may came down.

Most of the major Asia-pacific markets except Hong-Kong & India were trading in red today tracking slump in China market amid concern of ongoing de-leveraging and prudent & neutral monetary policy by PBOC. On the weekend, there was some reports that China Prez (Xi) wants to create a new cabinet level committee to coordinate financial oversight in the just concluded high profile and once in a five year National Financial Work Conference Meeting (NFWC).

In brief, policymakers at NFWC stressed for more regulations & powers to PBOC to stem systemic risks in the economy and will strengthen the Communist Party’s leaderships in the financial sector (political interference?).

Today’s China GDP data was blockbuster this morning, which flashed as 6.9% for Q2CY17 against estimate of 6.8% (prior: 6.9%). For full CY-17, China GDP is supposed to be come around 6.5% as par previous estimates.

Also, China IIP came upbeat at 7.6% (EST & prior: 6.5%) and retail sales were also good at 11% (EST: 10.6%; prior: 10.7%).

Although Chinese official economic data always lacks some credibility, nevertheless, today’s data may be indicating steady & improving momentum of the economy supported by robust industrial production, consumer spending & exports.

PBOC today also strengthen the Yuan band from around 6.78 to 6.75 following tepid US economic data on Friday (CPI & Retail sales). Market may be also apprehending that, after today’s upbeat China economic data, PBOC may maintain its prudent neutral monetary policy to deleverage the China economy in the foreseeable future. 

Market may be also surprised by sudden injection of huge liquidity of net CNY 140 bln by the PBOC today just before the release of China GDP data, sparking some apprehension about the underlying health of Chinese economy; something must be wrong!!

Thus, China market (SSE) was under some pressure today and that may be dragging the Asian market sentiment to some extent; Japan was closed today. 

After today’s upbeat China economic data, PBOC may tighten further or maintain its present prudent neutral monetary policy to deleverage the China economy in the foreseeable future; thus today’s good news from China may be viewing as bad news for the stimulus hungry risk-on market. 

China market (SSE) was trading around 3176, almost down by 1.40% in a volatile day of trading and also being dragged by spate of IPO approvals recently.

Elsewhere, Australia (AX-200) was closed almost flat around 5762 (-0.10%), amid some pull back in AUDUSD & upbeat China economic data; but being dragged by Banks after mixed results from their US counterparts on Friday. Also, recently a spate of federal & state taxes was imposed on the big AU banks. AU market may be also being helped by metals/commodities today after upbeat China GDP/IIP data. 

Although Japan was closed today, Nikkei-225 Fut is trading almost flat around 20119 (+0.09%) on strength in Yen after weekend slump in the USDJPY tracking subdued US CPI & retail sales and a dovish Fed.

Overnight US market (DJ-30) was closed at another record breaking levels (+0.39%) celebrating a dovish Fed after subdued US economic data, which may force Yellen to stay on the side line till Dec’17; but Fed may start its QE tapering from Sep’17. On Friday, mixed results from the banks & poor NIM & guidance dragged the US market to some extent.

Oil (WTI) is up today around 46.60 (+0.19%), extending rally of around 5% last week tracking subdued growth in the US oil-rig count on Friday (Baker Wages report) and shut down of a Nigerian oil pipeline. 

Technically, Crude Oil now need to sustain above 47.05 area for further rally towards 47.30/47.50-48.00/48.25 & 50.00-52.00 zone; otherwise, sustaining below 46.40, it may again fall to 45.80/45.60-43.70 & 42.00 area in the coming days.

Gold is up around 1231 (+0.23%) tracking weakness in USD; Gold now need to sustain over 1235 area for more up move; immediate positional sup is around 1214.

Elsewhere, European market was also flat after inline EZ CPI data ahead of ECB & BOJ later in this week; EZ CPI at 1.3% and core CPI at 1.1% for June may be indicating a tepid pace of expansion of the economy in the inflation starved DM; but helped by upbeat China GDP data (commodities/miners space).

FTSE is trading around 7405, almost up by 0.35% as GBP came down from Friday’s rally being an export heavy index and ongoing squabbling about Brexit negotiations.

DAX is now trading around 12585, down by almost -0.40% with CAC-40 & MIB-40 almost unchanged.

Overall, as global market capitalization exceeds the global GDP (around 102%) based on few words from Yellen without support of underlying fundamentals or valuations, market may be entering well in a bubble zone.



SGX-NF


BNF

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