Monday 31 July 2017

Nifty Surged By 0.60% Helped By SBI On Hopes Of Better NIM; Positive Global Cues After Upbeat China MFG PMI Also Helped The Market today



Nifty Closed The Month of July Almost 5.80% Up On The Back Of Dovish Fed, Stable Q1 Earnings So Far, Good Monsoon & Forced P-Notes FNO Short Covering

Market Wrap: 31/07/2017 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Aug): 10102 (+60; +0.60%) (TTM PE: 25.51; Abv 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 10077)

NSE-BNF (Aug): 25129 (+195; +0.78%) (TTM PE: 31.58; Abv 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 25104)

For 01/08/2017:

Key support for NF: 10075-9995
Key resistance for NF: 10150-10205

Key support for BNF: 25050-24850

Key resistance for BNF: 25150-25275

Hints for positional trading:

Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10150 area for further rally towards 10205-10275 & 10325-10380 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 10130-10115 area, NF may fall towards 10075-9995 & 9955-9890 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 25200 area for further rally towards 25275-25485 & 25695-25965 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25150 area, BNF may fall towards 25050-24850 & 24750- 24600 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Nifty Fut (Aug) today closed around 10102, galloped by nearly 60 points in  the last hour of trade tracking positive EU markets and hopes of RBI rate cuts & better NIM of SBI/other PSBS following drastic cut/realignment of savings deposit rates. Nifty-Fut today made an opening minutes low of 10038 and a closing session high of around 10114 in a day of moderate volatility.

Indian market (Nifty Fut) today opened around 10038, almost flat tracking mixed global cues amid renewed NK geo-political tensions in the weekend (another ICBM test), poor US economic data and on-going Trump political drama; but an upbeat China MFG PMI data may have boosted the Asia-Pacific market sentiment, after some early set back.

Overnight US market was also closed mixed and DJ-30 closed almost flat (+0.15%) at another record high on mixed/poor earnings and fall in USD, which may be positive for US export earnings and economy (imported inflation). Looking ahead, SPX-500, which is now trading around 2465, needs to break above 2495-2505 area for further rally up to 2585-2605 zone; otherwise it may again come down towards 2435-2400 area in the coming days.

Although, US headline GDP came in line with estimates at 2.6% for Q2, the fact that Q1 figure was further revised down to 1.2% from prior 1.4% and further crunching suggests that the internal components of Q2 GDP were not also very upbeat, specially the employment/wage index portion. 

Overall, average Q1 & Q2 GDP is now stands around 1.9%, which may be far away than Trump’s rhetoric of 3% and also much below than average street estimates of around 2.5%; after tepid Q1 & Q2 GDP, almost all the economists has lowered their Q3 estimate by around 0.3%.

Moreover, NK has tested a long range ICBM as planned on Friday, which may be capable of hitting US main lands and all these along with on-going US political entertainment, health care issues, debt ceiling, various reshuffling in WH has made the USDJPY lower, which in turn has also affected the risk-on sentiment to some extent. Overall, US consumer sentiment may be also affecting now on poor visibility of the whole Trumponomics narratives.

But, upbeat Mfg PMI data, indicating PPI price pressure has made the China & Hong-Kong market to trade in positive (reflation trade) with surge in iron ore & metals. Thus, most of the Asian markets are now in positive.

Today, China MFG PMI for July flashed as 51.4 against estimate of 51.6 (prior: 51.7); although apparently the PMI data may be subdued, it’s well above the 50 boom/bust line despite China’s ongoing deleveraging, factory capacity cut etc.

Moreover, the fine print of the China MFG PMI suggests that both input & output prices has surged, which in turn may be indicating a higher China PPI & subsequent transmission of Chinese inflation/reflation to the rest of the world (US/EZ), being starved of the elusive 2% CPI, China being the global factory of the world.

Today’s upbeat China MFG PMI may also suggest better prospects of construction sector and better confidence among the companies there.

Back to home, Indian market today traded most of the times in moderate green tracking risk-on sentiment of Hong-Kong market, which generally drives the regional market sentiment and soared in the last hour of trade. Looking ahead, all eyes of the Dalal Street may be on the Mint Street (RBI) day after tomorrow apart from the on-going Q1FY18 report cards, which may be termed as mixed so far.

Market may be already discounted a 0.25% rate cut by RBI this time, considering the lower headline CPI for June & also for the last few months. Looking ahead, RBI statement may be also closely watched as it may be a “hawkish one off cut” for CY-2017 to accommodate the growing rate cut chorus from various quarters.

But, RBI may be quite hawkish this time, even if it may cut as various channel checks suggest that food inflation is surging back in the last few weeks as seasonal factors has been priced in and we have heavy floods in different parts of the country, affecting both production & transportation of vegetables/other food items. 

Food inflation & favourable base effect may be one of the few primary drivers behind recent fall in India’s headline CPI, although core CPI is hovering around 4% & is still sticky. It’s may be very much interesting this time for the RBI statements/comments/Q&A on the back drop of growing bandwagon for global QT; if Fed is continue with its planned QE tapering and multiple (3) rate hikes in 2018, the US bond yield may surge and it may be very difficult for the RBI to go ahead with any drastic cut, considering the attractive bond yield differential Of India.

Also, in Q2FY18, we may have some GST disruptions as channel checks suggest that most of the small & medium retailers, dealers are not GST registered till now and old stocks are relinquishing fast; there may be also some de-stocking issues in Q2.

Today, Indian market was supported by Banks on rate cut hopes by RBI on 2nd Aug, IT, OIL & Gas and LT (upbeat guidance although overall report card may be quite subdued) & infra sector whereas it was dragged by Pharma, FMCG & select private banks.

SBI is in great move today after it cut/realigned deposit rate on certain savings A/C, which may save it around Rs.3700 cr as par its March financial statement. Some of the other PSBS has also cut their respective deposit rate, which may be indicating that a RBI cut is indeed coming this week.

Interestingly, SBI did not cut its MCLR today and cut only S/B deposit rates, which may help its NIM by 0.14%; other PSBS may also gain around this level, but private banks may gain more in NIM around 0.50%, if they go the SBI way.

But, the issue may be also that while PSBS are now cutting certain savings deposit rates, some private Banks, such as Yes bank has not announced such cut so far and they traditionally offer much more attractive S/B deposit rate; thus competition may also cause some outflow of S/B deposits from the PSBS (SBI) in the months ahead.

Looking ahead, Nifty Fut (Aug) need to sustain over 10115 area for more rally towards 10150-10205 zone; otherwise it may come down and sustaining below 10075 area, may further fall towards 9995-9955 zone in the coming days; if RBI does not cut rate day after tomorrow, then expect some price & time correction; even if cut the rate with a hawkish tone, the market may correct.

Today Nifty was supported by SBI (+4.48%), Powergrid (analysts optimism), Hindalco, Tata Steel (upbeat China PMI data, surging metals and buzz of an imminent JV with the German Co), BOB (deposit rate cut may help NIM), ONGC, RIL (surging oil around $50), Infy & other IT counters.

Even HDFC duo, which has dragged the market initially on failed deleveraging story of its Life Insurance arm (HDFC Life) with Max India, also recovered at the closing hours, pushing the Nifty higher.

Nifty was dragged today by Sun Pharma, DRL (poor Q1 report card), Lupin, Cipla, Auro Pharma, ITC (adverse report by US FDA on tobacco) & Yes Bank.
Also, Moody’s upbeat view about Indian economy to grow around 8% in the next 3-4 years despite DeMo blues may have boosted the Indian market sentiment today.

Meanwhile, India’s Fiscal deficit for April-June almost reaches 80.8% of FY-18 Budget estimates and infrastructure output for June came as 0.4% against prior 3.6% (YOY). Both the data may not be so much upbeat. All eyes may be on the MFG PMI tomorrow ahead of RBI.

Elsewhere, Australia (ASX-200) is now closed around 5720, almost up by 0.20%, but well off the highs despite lower AUD & upbeat China MFG PMI data today. Market may closely watch RBA statement day after tomorrow for any talk down effort of AUD, considering its recent strength and some dovish jawboning of the RBA Gov & Dy Gov after the 3.5% neutral rate fiasco; RBA is expected to be neutral this time and market is expecting no immediate hike now.

Japan (Nikkei-225) is closed around 19925, down by almost 0.17%, on stronger Yen (lower USDJPY) and an upbeat June IIP data (although slightly below estimate), showing significant rebound from May. As always, an upbeat JP economic data may be good for Yen and bad for export heavy JP index.

China (SSE) is closed around 3275, almost up by 0.63% despite NK overhang on upbeat MFG PMI data today, which may be also indicating that it is on the path of sustainable 6.5%+ GDP growth in the coming days. Today PBOC also fixed the USDCNY at slightly lower level and maintain its neutral stance on the money market. MSCI also warned China today about some of its small caps, which are being suspended for trading for a very long time.

Hong-Kong (HKG-33) was trading deep in green around 27295, up by almost 1.10% and basically driving the Indian market sentiment.

Overall, today Asian market is being supported by metals, mining (upbeat China MFG PMI) and Oil & gas (higher crude), but dragged by some retail stocks (subdued report cards).

Crude Oil (WTI) was trading around 49.95, up by almost 0.50% on Venezuela oil sanction by US, threat of another Sanction of Russia, tight US oil production rig figures and OPEC/Saudi jawboning about further production & export cut. Technically, Crude now need to sustain over 50.05-50.25 area for further rally; otherwise it may come down.

Elsewhere, although, most of the major European markets were trading in green, with Stoxx-50 now tradi8ng around 3475 (+0.21%) boosted by an upbeat EZ core inflation & mining stocks, thanks to China’s Mfg PMI data today.


But, an upbeat core CPI may also induce ECB for a QE tapering from Jan’18 as expected. Also upbeat earning from some of the blue chips has boosted the EU market sentiment today. But, overall, a strong EUR/EU bund yields may not be good for the risk-on trade.



 SGX-NF


BNF


CRUDE OIL

Nifty May Open Almost Flat Tracking Mixed Global Cues Amid Renewed NK Geo-Political Tensions, Tepid US Economic Data & On-Going Political Drama, But Upbeat China PMI Data; All Eyes Of Dalal Street May Be On Mint Street This Week & Q1 Earnings



Market Mantra: 31/07/2017 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 10040 (+1)

For the Day: 

Key support for NF: 10000-9955

Key resistance for NF: 10075-10115

Key support for BNF: 24800-24650

Key resistance for BNF: 25050-25150


Hints for positional trading: Strategy-SELL ON RISE

Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10115 area for further rally towards 10150-10205 & 10275-10325 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 10095-10055 area, NF may fall towards 10000-9955 & 9870-9800 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 25050 area for further rally towards 25150-25275 & 25485 -25695 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25000 area, BNF may fall towards 24800-24650 & 24350-24200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Aug) may open around 10040, almost flat tracking mixed global cues amid renewed NK geo-political tensions in the weekend (another ICBM test), poor US economic data and on-going Trump political drama.

Overnight US market was also closed mixed; but D-30 closed almost flat (+0.15%) at another record high on mixed earnings and fall in USD, which may be positive for US export earnings and economy (imported inflation).

Although, US GDP came in line with estimates at 2.6% for Q2, the fact that Q1 figure was further revised down to 1.2% from prior 1.4% and the internal components of Q2 GDP were not also very upbeat, specially the employment/wage index portion. 

Overall, average Q1 & Q2 GDP is now stands around 1.9%, which may be far below than Trump’s rhetoric of 3% and also much below than average street estimates of around 2.5%; after tepid Q1 & Q2 GDP, almost all the economists has lowered their Q3 estimate by around 0.3%.

Moreover, NK has tested a long range ICBM as planned on Friday, which may be capable of hitting US main lands and all these along with on-going US political entertainment, various reshuffling in WH has made the USDJPY lower, which in turn has also affected the risk-on sentiment to some extent.

But, upbeat Mfg PMI data, indicating PPI price pressure has made the China & Hong-Kong market to trade in positive (reflation trade) with surge in iron ore & metals. Thus, most of the Asian markets are now in positive.

Back to home, Indian market is now trading in positive tracking risk-on Hong-Kong market, which is generally drive the regional market sentiment. Looking ahead, all eyes of the Dalal Street may be on the Mint Street (RBI) apart from the on-going Q1FY18 report cards, which may be termed as mixed so far.

Market may be already discounted a 0.25% rate cut by RBI this time, considering the lower headline CPI for June & also for the last few months. Looking ahead, RBI statement may be also closely watched as it may be a “hawkish one off cut” for CY-2017 to accommodate the growing rate cut chorus from various quarters.

But, RBI may be quite hawkish this time, even if it may cut as various channel checks suggest that food inflation is surging back in the last few weeks as seasonal factors has been priced in and we have heavy floods in different parts of the country, affecting both production & transportation of vegetables. 

Food inflation & favourable base effect may be one of the few primary drivers behind recent fall in India’s headline CPI, although core CPI is hovering around 4% & is still sticky.

Also, in Q2FY18, we may have some GST disruptions as channel checks suggest that most of the small & medium retailers, dealers are not GST registered till now and old stocks are relinquishing fast; there may be also some de-stocking issues in Q2.


SGX-NF

Friday 28 July 2017

Nifty Closed Almost Flat But Well Off The Lows Helped By Infy & HDFC Amid Subdued Global Cues And Some Blue Chips Muted Earnings



Market Wrap: 28/07/2017 (19:30)

NSE-NF (Aug): 10039 (-24; -0.24%) (TTM PE: 25.35; Abv 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 10015)

NSE-BNF (Aug): 24934 (-58; -0.23%) (TTM PE: 31.20; Abv 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 24811)

For 28/07/2017:

Key support for NF: 9955-9870

Key resistance for NF: 10075-10115

Key support for BNF: 24800-24650

Key resistance for BNF: 25050-25150

Hints for positional trading:

Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10075 area for further rally towards 10115-10150 & 10205-10275 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 10055 area, NF may fall towards 10000-9955 & 9870-9800 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 25050 area for further rally towards 25150-25275 & 25485 -25695 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25000 area, BNF may fall towards 24800-24650 & 24350-24200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Nifty Fut (Aug)/India-50 today closed around 10039, down by almost 0.24%, but well off the opening session low of 9990 and it made a late day high of 10053; Nifty Spot almost closed flat around 10015 (-0.06%).

Indian market (Nifty-Fut/India-50) today opened around 10011, almost gap down by 60 points tracking subdued global cues and some blue chip earnings disappointments; but it recovered quite smartly on brisk buying of Infy & HDFC in the last hour of trade.

Also, optimism from LIC about Indian equity market and its commitments of higher investments flashed in the last hour may have also supported the market today. LIC may be very interested to invest in bitten down PSBS as bargain hunting; as par LIC, PSBS now may have made full provisions for the stressed assets; thus the worst of NPA crisis may be over.

Indian Govt (commerce minister) today also announced that Govt may soon release a foreign trade policy review in Sep to stimulate the sluggish Indian product export and as par the Govt, GST is helping a lot for competitive exports.

As par the Dy FM, there is no evidence of any inflation due to implementation of GST and India’s tax base is also expanding rapidly after the GST. All these news/developments may have helped the Indian market today in the last hour of trade despite some muted report card published during the market hours.

After opening gap down, Indian market today covered some short and stabilized to some extent, but again came under sudden selling pressure, when news of removal of the Pak PM by the SC there came in; a politically unstable Pak and high probability of next military regime there may not be good for the ongoing Ind-Pak geo-political tensions at LOC.

Also, the suspended Pak PM may have cordial diplomatic relation with NAMO despite so much geo-political tensions and his removal may have also blocked the back channel diplomacy between the two warring neighbors and thus going ahead, we may see more war of bullets rather than words.

Overall, today Indian market was dragged by Pharma, select private banks & infra stocks, while broader market outperformed with midcap & small cap stocks. 

Today Nifty was supported by HDFC (earning optimism & demerger/IPO buzz of its Life Insurance subsidiary), Infy (buy back buzz ?), Yes Banks (earning optimism/ stock split), Idea (imminent merger with Vodafone and worst R-Jio impact may be over on the telecom sector), Kotak/Indusind Bank (analysts optimism as a prime beneficiary of DeMo-financial savings), ITC & ONGC. IT counters also recovered from day’s low tracking some recovery in USDINR and on bargain hunting.

Nifty was dragged by DRL (thumbs down by analysts after poor report card citing US pricing pressure and domestic issues of GST-destocking) & other Pharma counters such as Lupin, Sun/Auro Pharma, ICICI Bank (poor report card & elevated stressed assets), Axis Bank (in line report card, but acquiring a start up Free Charge with all cash transactions for customer data mining), L&T, HDFC Bank, Hindalco/Tata Steel (metals) and Infratel (adverse NSE observation regarding financial reporting regulations).

Looking ahead, al the eyes mat be on RBI next week as market is expected a 0.25% hike, which may have already discounted by the Banks & other rate sensitive sectors. But if there is no hike of RBI tone is very hawkish, then expect another sell off (hawkish cut).

Banks were in huge rally for the last few weeks; apart from earning optimism, hopes for a quick NPA resolution and RBI rate cuts, Govt’s plan to enhance the limit for FPIS in the corporate bond market and allowing it as collaterals against the RBI repo window borrowing (?) may be also responsible for this huge rally.

Globally, almost all the major Asian markets are in moderate to deep red tracking subdued global cues. Overnight US market (DJ-30), although closed 0.39% up on the strength of Verizon earnings, NASDAQ & broader market came into severe pressure; NASDAQ tumbled by almost 0.63% (- 40 points after recovering from -100 odd points). Verizon closed 7.7% higher yesterday and helped the DJ-30 to finish in green.

Yesterday, broader US market came into pressure after a well known & widely followed quant analyst predicted that VIX may be at the bottom & pointed out very low VIX volatility, which may be a similar sign of 1987 market crash; consequently tech & transportation shares were came under huge pressure and NASDAQ nosedived by more than 1%, before recovering almost half at the closing hours. 

Almost all the JPY crosses except USDJPY came into significant selling pressure, affecting the narrative of Yen carry trade, which may be a good contributor of risk-on trade.

Also, some of the tech report card from US yesterday may be disappointing, which may have also affected the US market sentiment amid ongoing political jitters. As NASDAQ has already rallied by almost 20% YTD, stretched valuation may be also a great concern. Amazon is in pressure after reporting slump in profits; the scrip is up by almost 40% YTD.

Although, USDJPY is down, Yen is up against almost all the G-20 currencies, affecting the export heavy Japanese market as well as the overall Asian market sentiment; Hong-Kong is also down due to plunge in tech shares. Also, growing political issues in Japan may be affecting the market sentiment there; today Defence minister resigns due to some alleged cover up of military documents related to UN peace keeping force.

Japanese Yen also got some strength after July BOJ minutes show discussion of QQE tapering among the BOJ policy makers and some upbeat economic data from Japan today; JP household/consumer spending, job application & unemployment and even retail sales data came strong; but inflation & core CPI is still subdued. 

Recently, an influential Abe adviser is trying to downplay the rhetoric of 2% inflation targeting by BOJ and emphasizing that job creation, wage growth may be far more important than stimulating higher inflation in the economy. In that sense, Abenomics may be quite successful. Thus, we may expect BOJ/Abe to also go for the global QT tunes in the months ahead to keep parity with USD & EUR.

USDJPY is almost flat ahead of US GDP report today on hopes of an upbeat figure (consensus 2.6% for Q2/QOQ) after strong durable goods order, trade balance & inventories data released yesterday. 

Almost all the analysts including Atlanta Fed has revised their GDP estimate by around 0.3% from 2.5% to 2.8% on an average; someone even predicting as high as 3.2%. A better than expected US GDP today may be good for USD (hawkish Fed narrative), but may not be good for risk trade.

Elsewhere, Australia (ASX-200) was closed around 5700, almost down by 1.50%, most probably on increasing political jitters there despite some fall in AUDUSD today. A key Govt coalition senate member has resigned today due to some dual citizen issue, which may be a bad news for the present AU Govt, as it enjoyed only 1 seat majority in the senate (AU parliament). 

Also, overnight tech panic in US market may be affecting the AU market today. Today’s PPI report from AU may be also negative for the AUD ahead of RBA meeting next week. RBA is expected to be neutral with some dovish comments about the strength of the currency, aiming to talk down a bit.

Japan (Nikkei-225) also closed in moderate red around 19955 (-0.60%), tracking broad strength in Yen after upbeat JP economic data & some hawkish stuffs in the BOJ minutes. Tech shares are also in pressure today in Japanese market.

China (SSE) also closed almost unchanged around 3250, following increasing concern of regulatory tightening & a strong Yuan; but being helped by China Next small caps to some extent on bargain hunting.

Hong-Kong (HKG-33) closed in moderate red around 27000 (-0.440%) tracking slump in tech shares and also driving the overall Asian sentiment including Indian market down.

Crude Oil (WTI) was almost flat around 48.95 (-0.18%) ahead of US oil rigs data later in the day today; recently oil is holding ground around $50 on OPEC/Saudi jawboning about reduction in exports & production, buzz of Venezuela supply reduction/US sanctions, hopes of faster rebalancing amid dips in US shale production and increasing demand from China, India, EU & USA. 

As par some reports, US shale production may be unviable at oil near $45 and thus we may see less US shale oil with price hovering around 45-50$; but due to superior technology, even a $40 oil may be turned viable in the days ahead.

Technically, whatever be the narratives, oil has to sustain over 49.75-50.00 area now for next leg of rally towards 52 zone; otherwise it may come down towards 48.15-47.25 & 46.65-45.50 zone again in the coming days.



SGX-NF



BNF



CRUDE OIL