Nifty Dropped By 0.80% Mirroring Tepid Global Cues Amid Trump’s Immigration & H1B Visa Tantrum Coupled With “Hawkish/Owlish” Indian Economic Survey And Hints Of A Populist Budget Tomorrow In Prez’s Address To The Parliament

Market Wrap: 31/01/2017 (19:00)

Looking at the chart, Nifty Fut (Feb @8586) has to sustain over 8665-8705 area for further rally towards 8745-8795 & 8855-8895 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8645-8605 zone, NF may fall towards 8545-8505 & 8455-8390 and 8315-8220 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Today’s Parliament speech by the Prez may be more sounding like a “populist” budget for tomorrow rather than a “popular” (market friendly) one, keeping in eyes on the forthcoming state & 2019 general election after demonetization pain.

Nifty Fut (Feb) today finished around 8586 (-69 points) and closed below 5-DEMA (8605) for the 1^st time after several trading days of upwards trend in the recent times. NF today made an opening minute high of 8639.80 and closing session low of 8576.25.

Domestic market today opened in negative tone mirroring tepid global cues as Trump tantrum continues over the immigration issues. Moreover a report that Trump is in the process to restructure the controversial H1B Visa by hiking minimum salary more than double from the present $0.60 lakhs to $1.30 lakhs has shaken the sentiment of the Indian market (IT outsourcing sector). Also, there is some report that Trump will meet the Pharma industry later today to “fix” their exorbitant drug prices issues.

Although, these are all the known election rhetoric of Trump, the manner in which these are being imposed may have got the market on wrong foot and overall narratives has been changed from “Trumponomics” (fiscal/infra spending, tax cuts, deregulation) to trade protection & “America First” theme. As a result, USD/US bond yields are falling fast across the board and it seems that Trump & Co is engaging in a currency war with other nations, including Germany/EU, terming EUR as significantly weak in the own interest of Germany. Trump administration may be now realizing that an exceptionally strong USD will be not good for US economy & its corporates and thus may be trying to “talk down” the USD along with various “executive actions”.

Today’s apparent dovish stance of the BOJ has no effect on the USDJPY and Yen is getting stronger, which may be an indication that more than economics/central bankers, US politics & Trump is controlling the FX world as of now.

Although, Indian Govt & NASCOM are lobbying hard with the appropriate US authorities for the H1B Visa issues as almost 85% of the quota is being used by the Indian companies, Trump may be in “no mood” to excuse despite preferred relation with NAMO. 

Apart from IT woes, today’s market sentiment may be also hurt as Prez’s address to the Parliament, which is effectively a “My Govt” document & visionary statement sounds like more “populist”. Also, economic survey prepared by the Govt’s CEA may be more hawkish (owlish) than the market perception, may also made the market cautious ahead of budget tomorrow. 

The economic survey has estimated the FY-17 & FY-18 GDP growth as 7.1% (expected) and between 6.75-7.5% (may be below median estimates) amid uncertainty & spillover effect of demonetization. This may be also showing that Govt/Policymakers are itself not confident about an early revival of the economy contrary to the earlier narratives. Thus, tomorrow’s MFG PMI data for Jan’17 may be quite important (estimate 49.7; prior: 49.6) apart from the monthly auto sales numbers.

Market will also keenly watch actual/estimated FY-17 & projected FY-18 GDP/fiscal deficit figure. Although, for FY-18 it was earlier pegged at 3%, most analysts are expecting it to be between 3-3.5% (3.3% ?), keeping in mind about incremental Govt capex after demonetization. Anything above 3.5% may be disastrous for the market as it will make rating agencies more vulnerable to downgrade India. 

But, today’s economic survey indicated that the Govt may prefer to stick to the fiscal consolidation roadmap in the budget tomorrow and that also helped the market to some extent. High combined fiscal deficit of around 6.5% in India, along with high Govt debt/GDP ratio, very low per capita income, issues of “twin balance sheets”, tepid private investments may be some of the deterrents for the rating agencies to upgrade Indian sovereign rating as of now. Also lack of effective implementation of reform policies, such as GST, Land & Labour and demonetization fiasco may be some of the other factors going against Indian economy despite Govt’s best effort to convince the global rating agencies.

Today, after market hours, Govt released its revised GDP growth for FY-16 from 7.6% earlier to 7.9%; it may be positive for the FY-16 GDP/fiscal deficit ratio as absolute amount of GDP has increased. But, ultimately to the vast Indian demographics, fiscal deficit is meaningless, unless “employment deficit” issues are being effectively countered and that may be the biggest “political risks” for India.  

Market will also watch keenly about any more stimulus to the economy, cuts/rejig in personal & corporate income tax, thrust on social sector schemes, affordable housing, digital economy etc in the budget tomorrow to reduce the short term pain caused by demonetization suffered by the “Aam Admi” for a long term gain. BTT may be imposed tomorrow.

But uncertainty about actual revenue in FY-18 after demonetization effect spill over may also make the FM little worried and eventually, Govt may project a wider band (deviation ?) from the earlier fiscal consolidation roadmap.

Investors will also watch any capital market taxation reform as a “contribution towards country’s growth” and any redefinition of LTCGT from one to two/three years may be not good for the market sentiment. Market may also give a knee jerk reaction, if fine prints of GARR & other FPIS taxation issues look scary.

 SGX-NF

Nifty May Come Under Stress Ahead Of Budget/Economic Survey & Hosts Of Monthly Data Tomorrow Amid Tepid Global Cues Following Trump’s Tantrum

Market Mantra: 31/01/2017 (08:30)

Watch 8665-8580 & 8685-8745 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8610 Today

As par reports, budget may redefine LTCGT from one to two years, which may be negative for the Indian market sentiment, apart from Trump’s plan to restructure/ban H1B visa in US.

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Feb) may open around 8610 (-48 points) following tepid global cues amid ongoing chaos in US for the controversial immigration/travel ban from the seven specified Muslim countries. Just few hours ago, Trump sacked his AG for not obeying his “executive” decisions. Although, market may be well aware of Trump’s election rhetoric & promises, the manner, in which its being executed and the overall chaos of the US administration is making the investors extremely nervous. At this rate, US may be heading towards a constitutional crisis in the days ahead, if not handled properly.

Although, a falling USD/US bond yields may be good for EM, including India, a “risk off” sentiment may also affect the overall market.

Apart from US politics, Indian market may also keenly watch economic survey, revised GDP figure for FY-16 and Q3 result from ICICI Bank & Bajaj Auto. As par some reports, budget may redefine LTCGT application from one to two year; i.e. buying & selling within two years will be taxed as short term gain rate, which may also be negative for the market.

Market may be obsessed with cut in direct tax; but on deeper thinking, this may have very limited impact on the consumption side as very few people is actually paying any direct tax. Reduction in indirect tax including abnormally high tax component on the petro products & service tax may be more beneficial for the Indian consumer to save & spend. On an average, we are paying probably more than 30% indirect taxes and the proposed GST structure will be of little help to reduce such huge burden.

Hints for actionable trading ideas:

Technically, NF has to sustain over 8685-8705* area for further rally towards 8745*-8795 & 8855*-8895 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8665-8615* area, NF may further fall towards 8580*-8520 & 8480-8455/8405* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19642) has to sustain over 19925 area for any further rally towards 20000*-20350 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 19850 zone, BNF may further fall towards 19600-19400* & 19200*-19000 area for the day (under bear case scenario).

SGX-NF

BNF

Nifty Finished A Range Bound Session With Negative Bias Amid Tepid Global Cues Ahead Of Budget; But Supported By Idea & Other Telecom Stocks On Hopes Of Consolidation

Market Wrap: 30/01/2017 (19:00)

Looking at the chart, Nifty Fut (Feb @8658) has to sustain over 8685-8705 area for further rally towards 8745-8795 & 8855-8895 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8665-8635 zone, NF may fall towards 8585-8505 & 8455-8380/8315 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Ahead of budget day after tomorrow, all eyes will be on the Economic Survey to be released by the Govt tomorrow. Market may also watch keenly Auto sales & MFG PMI data for Jan, which will be released on the budget day (1^st Feb).

Nifty Fut (Feb) today closed around 8658 (-13 points) & snapped four days rally in an extremely range bound session after making an opening minutes low of 8636 and day high of 8682. Market was primarily supported today by telecom stocks after merger buzz of Idea & Vodafone. Subsequently, Idea rallied (+25%), Bharti Airtel (+6.76%), RIL/R-Jio (+1.94%) & Grasim also rallied by (+4.38%), being part of AB group (Idea). 

But, Idea later said that talks with Vodafone are still at very preliminary stage and they are also exploiting merger with some local player (Bharti Airtel?) for better synergy. Since late Aug’16, there was buzz of merger between Vodafone & Idea for the much awaited big consolidation to counter the aggressive competition from R-JIO; but that time after initial buzz, both Vodafone & Idea denied such probability. Recently, Idea postponed its scheduled Q3FY17 result day on 23^rd Jan’17 and that ignited again the merger buzz. Today, both Vodafone & Idea confirmed about discussions for possible merger. 

For Vodafone, which was exploiting an IPO for its Indian operation for the last few years, merger with Idea may be a back door entry in the Indian capital market. Idea has strong network in the rural area, especially in South India, whereas Vodafone has strong urban network. 

In this game of consolidation & cut throat competition, Indian telecom market now may be only suitable for player having very deep pocket and thus Vodafone, R-JIO & Airtel will be the main players of the sector. But, this Idea merger (either with Vodafone or with Airtel) may be the last major consolidation in the industry and being a huge merger in terms of telecom subscribers & spectrum, regulatory & CCI approval may be a challenge in the coming days.

Infratel may be a loser for this Idea merger talk as its towers may not be shared with both Idea & Vodafone after merger and thus corrected by 7.12% in today’s trade. Also, there was some confusion regarding its much awaited tower stakes sales talks, going on for months. Incidentally, Bharti Airtel is also exploring option to raise funds to counter R-JIO disruptions.

Banks were under pressure today and Bank Nifty corrected by 0.77% ahead of ICICI Bank result. Today’s HDFC result also showed incremental pressure on the stressed assets, although overall Q3 numbers were decent. L&T was also off the high after tepid Q4FY17 guidance. Almost 70% of the Nifty constituents were in red today and basically, telecoms saved the day from some deeper correction ahead of budget.

Global sentiment was tepid today after Trump’s executive order fiasco over immigration ban for seven selected Muslim countries. After Trump took charge of the Oval office on 20^th Jan, it seems that there is some disconnect between his administration & the invertors/market. Basically, market was looking for fiscal spending, tax cuts & deregulation narratives from Trump after assuming the White House, instead Trump is concentrating on trade barriers, immigration & “America First” issues. As a result, there may be huge domestic & international backlash/protests and even some of the members of Trump’s own party (RNC) may go against him, apart from the oppositions (DNC), which may not extend co-operation. 

Thus, US political risk for Trump’s unusual way of administration may be a big headwind for passage of the fiscal/infra spending bill and tax cuts in the days ahead. In such scenario, the whole concept of “Trumponomics” may be in question and thus USD/US bond yields are going down across the board.

Also, the way Trump is going now, he may soon find himself as “alone” and “America” may be “isolated” in the global economy itself.  IT counters were in pressure today after this anti-immigration stance from Trump.

 SGX-NF

Axis Bank: 485-495 May Be A Big Hurdle In The Coming Days; Management Credibility May Be At Stake Regarding Its NPA/NPL Management & Actual Resolution May Be Very Tepid

NIM May Come Under Severe Pressure As Yields On Retail Loans Are Falling Fast As Competition Heats Up After Demonetization Led Digital Banking Theme

29/01/2017 (19:30)

Trading Idea: Axis Bank

LTP: 473

Sell on rise around 485-495

TGT: 440-415 & 365-330 (1-3 & 6-12M)

TSL> 501 OR > 515 (+0.5% from TSL)

Note: Sustaining above 501 zone, Axis may further move towards 515 zone, which is a strong positional resistance for the stock and only consecutive closing above 515 area for any reason, it may further rally towards 535-555 & 605-655 zone in the near to long term (under bullish case scenario).

Any one holding long position in the stock or planning to do so, may also watch 464-454 area as near term positional support for the stock as of now.

Valuation Metrics	Q3FY17	Q4FY17E	FY-17E	Q1FY18	FY-18	FY-18*	FY-18*
AVG EPS	19.24	14.75	14.75	12.63	16.45	8.25	27.95
AVG PE	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
AVG FAIR VALUE	384.80	295.00	295.00	252.60	329.00	165.00	559.00

Q3FY17 EPS: 2.41 (Actual Reported/Diluted)

Q3FY17 TTM EPS: 19.24 (Actual)

Average PE: 20 (15-25)* 

Fair valuation: 385 (Q3FY17 TTM)

*By considering average EPS growth of around 19% for the last few years (FY: 12-16 before RBI AQR); 

Projected Q4FY17 EPS: 2.37

Projected FY1-17 EPS: 14.75-12.60 (Q4FY17 TTM Estimated/Consensus); 

(Although as par present trend, it may come around 12.60)

Projected Fair Valuation: 295-252 (FY-17 estimate/median-worse)

Projected FY-18 EPS: 16.45 (median); best-worst: 27.95-8.25

Projected fair valuation for FY-18: 329 (median estimate)

Best case scenario: 559 (FY-18 estimate)

Worst case scenario: 165 (FY-18 estimate)

Analyst’s projection for FY-17 & FY-18 EPS after Q3FY17 results:

ANALYST PROJECTION (EPS)	FY-17	FY18
IDIRECT	13.9	27.7
CENTRUM	16.2	32.9
KR CHOKSEY	13.4	24.6
EDL	16.7	38.3
RELIGARE	14.6	32
REUTERS	15.88	31.8
MY TREND	12.6	8.25
AVG	14.75	27.94
TTM Q1FY18 (MY TREND)		8.44
REUTERS		16.82
AVG		12.63

FY-17 EPS may fall to 14.75 from FY-16 EPS of 34.40; i.e by around 57% due to huge RBI AQR related legacy & normal provisioning. Now, depending upon the actual resolution process, Axis may report 10% average EPS growth from FY-18 onwards after normalization (although very low probability as par the present recovery trend of its huge NPL, where around only 1% being recovered from its NPL/NPA). 

Looking ahead, irrespective of the recognition process (watch list/AQR etc), Axis Bank as also other affected banks has to hasten the process of true resolution (actual recovery of NPA/NPL or even sale to ARC at reasonable discount). But, actual resolution process may be quite painful unless situation on the ground improves drastically; i.e. there must be consistent signs of overall economic recovery and revival of consumption/investment cycle. 

Mere change in management or asset sale may not work in most of the stressed assets case, as new management can’t ignite demand overnight and there may be not so much interested buyers for stressed assets also; even no one can show interest for buying a default property for various probable future legal disputes and at elevated reserved prices (recent example of repeated failure in sale of KFA assets).

Fall in property prices after demonetization may also make the task of the banks to sell their NPA assets even more harder, as banks has to lower the reserve prices also, whereas those assets may be valued at significantly higher prices at the time of sanction of loans; i.e. significant hair-cut has to be borne by the banks.

For Axis, average EBITDA growth is around 30%; but it may fall in the coming days as NIM may come under severe pressure and may fall towards 3.39-3.18% in FY: 17-18 and more in the coming years from present 3.61% (Q3FY17) as yields on retail loans are falling fast amid tight competition between the traditional & new bankers (PSBS and the old & new private banks as also small payment banks after demonetization led digital banking thrust). 

High NIM >4% for the Indian private banks may be in question in the coming days amid elevated credit costs and tepid corporate loan growth; all the banks are now basically chasing retails & SMES for their credit growth, which may also turn into another bubble in the coming months amid various uncertainties out of demonetization & “war on informal economy/black unaccounted money”. Also, Trump’s trade protection & “America First” policy may not be good for Indian service sector, especially for the IT outsourcing, which is traditionally a strong backbone for the great Indian retail story over the years. Any disruption in the Indian IT sector may also cause significant pressure on the retail banking assets including Axis Bank. 

For Axis bank, as on Q3FY17, around 5% of retail + SME loan portfolio may be stressed, whereas for corporates it’s around 14%. Overall, around 9% of total credit given by the bank may be stressed as on Q3FY17 and as par various estimates, it may touch 12-15% or more by FY: 17-18 in line with other Private bank (ICICI) & PSBS (legacy issues of over leverage by the Indian corporates & banks in 2010-12 period; the great Indian problem of “Twin Balance Sheet”). In that scenario, it may be safe to assume that around Rs. 42000-52000 cr may be stressed for the bank against an overall advance (loan given) figure of Rs.347175 cr as on Q3FY17.

The primary concern may be that the bank is able to recover/upgrade only Rs.350 cr out of its reported GNPA of Rs.20466.82 cr and total NPL of around Rs.31556.82 cr (GNPA+WL) in Q3FY17.

Axis bank reported very poor & way below estimate Q3FY17 earnings on 20^th Jan’17 and subsequently the stock corrected quite good and then rebounded decent in the last few days supported by general upbeat sentiment of the market for budget hopes and by the assurance of the management that its NPA cycle may be over.

The main highlights of the Q3FY17 result are: (Rs.in Cr)

Q3EPS: 2.41 against estimate of 2.78 (YOY: 9.09; QOQ: 1.33); i.e. it lags consensus by over 13%.

PAT: 579.57 against consensus of 816 (YOY: 2175.30; QOQ: 319.08); i.e. it lags estimate by around 29%.

NII: 4333.73 (estimate: 4568.50; YOY: 4162.06; QOQ: 4513.07)

Provision: 3795.80 (exceeds analysts’ estimates significantly; YOY: + 432.68%; QOQ: + 4.78%)

To be cont for more update----

AXIS-QTR	Dec '16	Sep '16	Jun '16	Mar '16	Dec '15	YOY	QOQ	AVG	AVGR	SGR	PROJ(%)	Q4FY17	Q1FY18
Interest Earned
(a) Int. /Disc. on Adv/Bills	8,156.41	8,386.18	8,319.81	8,093.40	7,529.37	8.33	-2.74	8082.19	0.92	1.96	0.55	8201.61	8247.05
(b) Income on Investment	2,416.67	2,380.58	2,436.28	2,420.80	2,292.82	5.40	1.52	2382.62	1.43	1.29	1.40	2450.41	2484.62
(c) Int. on balances With RBI	204.22	76.75	57.59	63.84	68.76	197.00	166.08	66.74	206.02	45.46	116.70	442.55	959.03
(d) Others	323.7	315.6	300.22	320.92	302.38	7.05	2.57	309.78	4.49	1.75	2.64	332.26	341.04
INTEREST INCOME	11,101.00	11,159.11	11,113.90	10,898.96	10,193.33	8.90	-0.52	10841.33	2.40	2.08	1.55	11272.61	11446.88
Other Income	3,400.21	2,539.66	2,738.28	2,694.01	2,337.78	45.45	33.88	2577.43	31.92	10.37	21.89	4144.37	5051.39
TOTAL REVENUE	14,501.21	13,698.77	13,852.18	13,592.97	12,531.11	15.72	5.86	13418.76	8.07	3.62	5.37	15279.64	16099.86
EXPENDITURE
Interest Expended	6,767.27	6,645.24	6,596.98	6,346.37	6,031.27	12.20	1.84	6404.97	5.66	2.87	3.35	6994.21	7228.77
Employees Cost	991.88	988.83	963.18	907.88	829.54	19.57	0.31	922.36	7.54	4.42	4.29	1034.43	1078.82
Other Expenses	2,101.83	1,964.52	1,822.65	1,940.19	1,685.24	24.72	6.99	1853.15	13.42	5.46	8.01	2270.25	2452.17
TOTAL OP EXPENDITURE	9,860.98	9,598.59	9,382.81	9,194.44	8,546.05	15.39	2.73	9180.47	7.41	3.53	4.38	10293.05	10744.04
EBITDA	4,640.23	4,100.18	4,469.37	4,398.53	3,985.06	16.44	13.17	4238.29	9.48	3.98	7.69	4996.90	5380.98
Depreciation	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITA	4,640.23	4,100.18	4,469.37	4,398.53	3,985.06	16.44	13.17	4238.29	9.48	3.98	7.69	4996.90	5380.98
Provisions & Contingencies	3,795.80	3,622.74	2,117.17	1,168.33	712.59	432.68	4.78	1905.21	99.23	49.03	65.30	6274.52	10371.89
Exceptional Items	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
PBT	844.43	477.44	2,352.20	3,230.20	3,272.47	-74.20	76.87	2333.08	-63.81	-7.83	-3.33	816.31	789.13
Tax	264.86	158.36	796.67	1,075.92	1,097.17	-75.86	67.25	782.03	-66.13	-10.20	-7.01	246.29	229.02
PAT	579.57	319.08	1,555.53	2,154.28	2,175.30	-73.36	81.64	1551.05	-62.63	-6.65	-1.50	570.89	562.34
Equity Share Capital	478.28	477.95	477.46	476.57	475.78	0.53	0.07	476.94	0.28	0.13	0.15	479.01	479.75
EPS	2.42	1.34	6.52	9.04	9.14	-73.50	81.51	6.51	-62.77	-6.77	-1.60	2.38	2.35
EPS (REPORTED)
Basic EPS	2.42	1.34	6.52	9.05	9.15	-73.55	80.60	6.52	-62.85	-6.98	-1.91	2.37	2.33
Diluted EPS	2.41	1.33	6.49	9.01	9.09	-73.49	81.20	6.48	-62.81	-6.79	-1.69	2.37	2.33
TTM EPS	19.24	25.92										12.60	8.44
NPA Ratios :
i) Gross NPA	20,466.82	16,378.65	9,553.17	6088	5,724.05	257.56	24.96	9435.97	116.90	39.83	61.52	33057.91	53394.98
ii) Net NPA	8,294.78	7,761.15	4,010.23	2522	2,514.09	229.93	6.88	4201.87	97.41	39.93	50.42	12477.40	18769.09
i) % of Gross NPA	5.22	4.17	2.54	1.67	1.68	210.71	25.18	2.52	107.55	35.21	55.16	8.10	12.57
ii) % of Net NPA	2.18	2.02	1.08	0.7	0.75	190.67	7.92	1.14	91.65	35.53	45.69	3.18	4.63
ROA(%)	0.39	0.23	1.19	1.68	1.79	-78.21	69.57	1.22	-68.10	-11.71	-7.45	0.36	0.33
NII	4,333.73	4,513.87	4,516.92	4,552.59	4,162.06	4.12	-3.99	4436.36	-2.31	0.93	-1.08	4286.72	4240.22
OPM(%)	32.00	29.93	32.26	32.36	31.80	0.62	6.91	31.59	1.30	0.28	2.16	32.69	33.40
NP(%)	4.00	2.33	11.23	15.85	17.36	-76.98	71.59	11.69	-65.82	-11.59	-6.27	3.75	3.51
NIM(%)	3.61	3.93	4.04	4.24	4.04	-10.64	-8.14	4.06	-11.14	-2.72	-6.16	3.39	3.18
ADV
RETAIL	149538.00	149284.00	143159.00	138521.00	125796.00	18.87	0.17	139190.00	7.43	4.25	4.14	155732.14	162182.85
SME	43208.00	45857.00	43611.00	44869.00	41186.00	4.91	-5.78	43880.75	-1.53	1.19	-1.22	42680.01	42158.47
CORPORATE	154429.00	158029.00	158155.00	155384.00	148385.00	4.07	-2.28	154988.25	-0.36	0.98	-0.16	154182.64	153936.67
TOTAL ADV	347175.00	353170.00	344925.00	338774.00	315367.00	10.09	-1.70	338059.00	2.70	2.35	1.47	352274.19	357448.27
GNPA UPGRADE/RECOVERY	350.00	1073.00	140.00	780.00	156.00	124.36	-67.38	537.25	-34.85	149.25	19.53	418.34	500.03
RECOVERY/GNPA(%)	1.71	6.55	1.47	12.81	2.73	-37.25	-73.90	5.89	-70.96	65.83	-22.09	1.33	1.04
NPA MOVEMENT
OP.BALANCE	16379.00	9553.00	6088.00	5724.00	4451.00	267.98	71.45	6454.00	153.78	39.24	82.87	29951.98	54772.65
FRESH SLIPPAGES	4560.00	8772.00	3638.00	1474.00	2082.00	119.02	-48.02	3991.50	14.24	49.67	11.41	5080.39	5660.17
UPGRDATION/RECOVERY(-)	350.00	1073.00	140.00	780.00	156.00	124.36	-67.38	537.25	-34.85	149.25	19.53	418.34	500.03
WRITE OFFS(-)	122.00	873.00	33.00	330.00	653.00	-81.32	-86.03	472.25	-74.17	567.89	96.84	240.15	472.71
GROSS NPA	20467.00	16379.00	9553.00	6088.00	5724.00	257.56	24.96	9436.00	116.90	39.83	61.52	33058.30	53395.77
GROSS PROVISION(-)	12172.00	8618.00	5543.00	3566.00	3210.00	279.19	41.24	5234.25	132.55	40.53	71.03	20817.67	35604.28
NEP NPA	8295.00	7761.00	4010.00	2522.00	2514.00	229.95	6.88	4201.75	97.42	39.93	50.43	12478.20	18770.99
ACCUMULATED WRITE OFF	2818.00	2901.00	3547.00	3627.00	3717.00	-24.19	-2.86	3448.00	-18.27	-6.44	-8.40	2581.15	2364.21
PROVISIONS (P/L)
LOAN LOSES	3576.00	3648.00	1823.00	906.00	626.00	471.25	-1.97	1750.75	104.26	57.56	69.41	6058.25	10263.54
STANDARD ASSETS	-81.00	-22.00	238.00	258.00	71.00	-214.08	268.18	136.25	-159.45	55.92	27.78	-103.50	-132.26
SDR A/C	17.00	9.00	71.00	22.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.50	-33.33	81.07	11.93	19.03	21.30
INVESTMENT	32.00	-37.00	-18.00	0.00	-15.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
OTHER PROVISION	252.00	25.00	3.00	-17.00	31.00	712.90	908.00	10.50	2300.00	451.51	959.43	2669.77	28284.48
TOTAL PROVISIONS	3796.00	3623.00	2117.00	1169.00	713.00	432.40	4.78	1905.50	99.21	49.00	65.27	6273.76	10368.82
PCR(%)	59.47	52.62	58.02	58.57	56.08
PCR(REPORTED%)	64.00	60.00	69.00	72.00	72.00
WL MOVEMENT
OP. BALANCE	11091.00	13789.00	20295.00	22628.00	24000.00	-53.79	-19.57	20178.00	-45.03	-17.00	-23.76	8455.59	6446.40
SLIPPAGE INTO NPA	2579.00	7288.00	2680.00
SLIPPAGE OUT OF WL	1981.00	1484.00	958.00			0.00	33.49	610.50	224.49	60.94	79.73	3560.46	6399.24
TOTAL SLIPPAGE FROM WL	12547.00			55.45
BALANCE WL	10081.00
FRESH ADDITION INTO WL	1070.00
EXIT OUT OF WL	-61.00
FINAL WL	11090.00
TOTAL NPL	31556.82
NPL/ADV(CURRENT)	9.09
RECOVERY/NPL(%)	1.11
CORPORTAE NPL
WL	11090.00
SPL-5/25	2992.00
SDR	1360.00
CDR	6336.00
TOTAL CORPORATE NPL	21778.00
RETAIL NPL	9778.82
CORPORATE ADV	154429.00	158029.00	158155.00	155384.00	148385.00
RETIAL+SME ADV	192746.00	195141.00	186770.00	183390.00	166982.00
NPL/CORP ADV	14.10
NPL/RETAIL+SME ADV	5.07

AXIS-YLY	Mar '16	Mar '15	Mar '14	Mar '13	Mar '12	FY-12-16	FY-15-16	AVG	AVGR	SGR	PROJ(%)	FY-17	FY1-8
Interest Earned
(a) Int. /Disc. on Adv/Bills	30,040.56	25,867.82	21,950.43	19,166.23	15,379.35	95.33	16.13	20590.96	45.89	17.07	25.73	37770.09	47488.44
(b) Income on Investment	9,377.59	9,117.09	8,343.13	7,746.98	6,394.27	46.66	2.86	7900.37	18.70	9.32	10.64	10374.94	11478.37
(c) Int. on balances With RBI	295.25	231.26	166.79	111.26	98.43	199.96	27.67	151.94	94.33	31.94	50.98	445.77	673.04
(d) Others	1,274.64	262.43	180.81	158.1	122.6	939.67	385.71	180.99	604.28	116.92	335.46	5550.49	24169.89
INTEREST INCOME	40,988.04	35,478.60	30,641.16	27,182.57	21,994.65	86.35	15.53	28824.25	42.20	15.78	23.77	50732.82	62794.39
Other Income	9,371.46	8,365.04	7,405.22	6,551.11	5,420.22	72.90	12.03	6935.40	35.13	13.82	19.80	11227.10	13450.19
TOTAL OP REVENUE	50,359.50	43,843.64	38,046.38	33,733.68	27,414.87	83.69	14.86	35759.64	40.83	15.40	23.00	61944.27	76194.03
EXPENDITURE
Interest Expended	24,155.07	21,254.46	18,689.52	17,516.31	13,976.90	72.82	13.65	17859.30	35.25	13.57	20.17	29026.74	34880.95
Employees Cost	3,376.01	3,114.97	2,601.35	2,376.98	2,080.17	62.29	8.38	2543.37	32.74	12.51	17.30	3960.10	4645.24
Other Expenses	6,724.81	6,088.77	5,299.42	4,537.26	3,926.93	71.25	10.45	4963.10	35.50	13.90	19.41	8030.30	9589.23
TOTAL OP EXPENDITURE	34,255.89	30,458.20	26,590.29	24,430.55	19,984.00	71.42	12.47	25365.76	35.05	13.51	19.72	41011.53	49099.46
EBITDA	16,103.61	13,385.44	11,456.09	9,303.13	7,430.87	116.71	20.31	10393.88	54.93	20.10	31.13	21116.76	27690.54
Depreciation	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITA	16,103.61	13,385.44	11,456.09	9,303.13	7,430.87	116.71	20.31	10393.88	54.93	20.10	31.13	21116.76	27690.54
Provisions & Contingencies	3,709.86	2,328.61	2,107.46	1,750.44	1,143.03	224.56	59.32	1832.39	102.46	31.23	62.29	6020.59	9770.59
Exceptional Items	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
PBT	12,393.75	11,056.83	9,348.63	7,552.69	6,287.84	97.11	12.09	8561.50	44.76	17.72	24.71	15456.61	19276.40
Tax	4,170.09	3,699.01	3,130.96	2,373.26	2,045.63	103.85	12.74	2812.22	48.28	19.15	26.53	5276.58	6676.67
PAT	8,223.66	7,357.82	6,217.67	5,179.43	4,242.21	93.85	11.77	5749.28	43.04	17.06	23.83	10183.57	12610.58
Equity Share Capital	476.57	474.1	469.84	467.95	413.2	15.34	0.52	456.27	4.45	3.38	3.05	491.09	506.05
EPS	34.51	31.04	26.47	22.14	20.53	68.08	11.19	25.04	37.80	13.82	19.96	41.40	49.66
EPS (REPORTED)
Basic EPS	34.59	31.18	26.51	23.93	20.59	68.01	10.94	25.55	35.36	13.32	19.16	41.22	49.11
Diluted EPS	34.40	30.85	26.45	23.77	20.44	68.30	11.51	25.38	35.56	13.36	19.37	41.06	49.02
NPA Ratios :
i) Gross NPA	6088	4,110.19	3,146.41	2,393.42	1,806.30	237.04	48.12	2864.08	112.56	33.69	63.41	9948.24	16256.17
ii) Net NPA	2522	1,316.71	1,024.62	704.13	472.64	433.60	91.54	879.53	186.75	49.61	109.07	5272.82	11024.06
i) % of Gross NPA	1.67	1.34	1.22	1.06	0.94	77.66	24.63	1.14	46.49	15.22	26.44	2.11	2.67
ii) % of Net NPA	0.7	0.44	0.4	0.32	0.25	180.00	59.09	0.35	98.58	28.99	57.92	1.11	1.75
ROA(%)	1.72	1.83	1.78	1.7	1.68	2.38	-6.01	1.75	-1.57	0.67	-1.58	1.69	1.67
NII	16,832.97	14,224.14	11,951.64	9,666.26	8,017.75	109.95	18.34	10964.95	53.52	19.51	29.71	21834.75	28322.76
OPM(%)	31.98	30.53	30.11	27.58	27.11	17.97	4.74	28.83	10.91	4.26	6.10	33.93	36.00
NP(%)	16.33	16.78	16.34	15.35	15.47	5.53	-2.69	15.99	2.14	1.41	0.56	16.42	16.51

 AX