Friday, 23 February 2018

Market Mantra: Nifty And Bank Nifty Fut (23_02_18)

Market Mantra: 23/02/2018 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 10395 (+11 points)

For the Day: updated: 11:15

March-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF: 10340/10290-10245*/10195

Resistance for NF: 10435/10495-10515*/10585

Support for BNF: 24800/24650*-24450/24200

Resistance for BNF: 25000/25200-25350/25500


Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10455 area for a further rally towards 10495-10515/10585 and 10625/10650-10725 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10435 area, NF may fall towards 10390/10340-10290 and 10245-10195 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25200 area for a further rally towards 25350-25500 and 25775-25975 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25150-25000 area, BNF may fall towards 24800-24650 and 24450-24200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).



SGX-NF


BNF



 SPX-500

Nifty edged down on last hour short covering in private banks and helped by exporters amid stronger USDINR

Market Wrap: 22/02/2018 (17:00)

NSE-NF (March):10384 (-31; -0.30%)

(NS: 10383; Q2FY18 EPS: 391; Q2FY18 PE: 26.55; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Jan):24971 (-30; -0.12%)

(BNS: 24955; Q2FY18 EPS: 867; Q2FY18 PE: 28.78; Abv 3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 23/02/2018: March-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Updated: 07:55

SGX-NF: 10395; (+11 points)

(Almost flat on muted global cues)

Expected BNF opening: 24800

March-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF: 10340/10290-10245*/10195

Resistance for NF: 10435/10495*-10560/10605

Support for BNF: 24800/24650*-24450/24200

Resistance for BNF: 25000/25200-25350/25500

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10455 area for a further rally towards 10495-10560 and 10605-10650 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10435-10395 area, NF may fall towards 10340-10290 and 10245-10195 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25200 area for a further rally towards 25350-25500 and 25700-25800 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25150-25000 area, BNF may fall towards 24800-24650 and 24450-24200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).


The Indian market (Nifty Fut-March/India-50) closed around 10384 on Thursday (22nd Feb), edged down by almost 0.30%, but off the low on FNO expiry related short covering/roll over in the bitten down banks & financials after some rebound in US stock future on lower USD and some fall in US bond yields. Nifty Fut made an opening session high of 10415 and a day low of 10360 in a day of range-bound trading.

Banks were upbeat on encouraging recovery from the stressed steel assets to the tune of almost 77% against the earlier estimate of less than 50%. But Bhushan steel bid by the Tata steel and some other good steel assets may be an exceptional issue. Also, the market may be worried about various bidding conditions by the NCLT under IBC process on “related” party issues to prevent backdoor entry of the existing defaulter promoter group.

Hopes of PSBS merger and management rejig to prevent such future loan fraud may have also boosted the sentiment of the banks on Thursday.

Indian bond yield also soared to 7.78% on hawkish RBI minutes, gradually changing its policy guidance for a hike, if the present trajectory of higher inflation and higher oil continues in the months ahead. USDINR also surged above 65 levels on the concern of outflow as US bond yield is now eyeing the 3% psychological mark.

Overall, Indian market tumbled by almost 6% for the February FNO expiry series on higher bond yields and PNB “loot” (theft) coupled with the imposition of LTCGT (long-term capital gain tax), breach of fiscal discipline and a politically populist budget. Bank Nifty lost around 9% and PSBS plunged by almost 16%, while Nifty Midcap corrected by a good 10% as valuations are also frothy amid mixed report card.

The market may be concerned over ballooning banking NPA under different forms, which may be far from over despite repeated assurances by the banks. The resultant impact of fiscal deficit amid repeated bailouts of the PSBS (public sector banks) by the government may be a great headwind for the market. Apart from corporate NPA, conditions for stressed MSME assets are also very worrying.

The PNB fiasco and the subsequent fear-mongering among Indian borrowers & lenders and witch hunting may be also negative for the Indian business & industry, which may have also an adverse effect on the employment scenario of the country.

The market may be also worried that the present PNB loan fraud case is not an isolated and exceptional issue; there might be many more such cases, considering the link between bankers, borrowers and politicians and the overall corruption angle.

The present PNB fraud may be just a tip of the ice bug. The market is also concerned that the PNB saga came into the limelight only after the accused were allowed to leave the country just like previous KFA fiasco.


On Thursday, Indian market was helped by private banks, selected PSBS, exporters/Techs/Pharma (higher USD), reality (no RERA on existing projects and renewed optimism over affordable housing), while dragged by automakers, FMCG, media, metals (some controversy about NCLT bids for stressed steel assets), consumption, energy/OMC and infra stocks. Apart from higher USDINR, renewed optimism about prospects of techs has also helped.






SGX-NF


BNF


USDJPY

Thursday, 22 February 2018

Market Mantra: Nifty And Bank Nifty Future -22_02_18

Market Mantra: 22/02/2018 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 10350 (-39 points)

For the Day: updated: 10:45

Feb-Fut/SPOT (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF: 10290/10245*-10160/10070


Resistance for NF: 10435/10495*-10535/10585


Support for BNF: 24800/24650*- 24450/24200


Resistance for BNF: 25000/25200-25500/25650


Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10455 area for a further rally towards 10495-10535 and 10585-10625 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10435-10395 area, NF may fall towards 10300-10245 and 10160-10070 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25200 area for a further rally towards 25500-25650 and 25875-26075 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25150-25050 area, BNF may fall towards 25000-24800 and 24650-24450/24200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).



SGX-NF


BNF



SPX-500

Nifty jumped on exporters amid higher USD and short covering ahead of FNO expiry coupled with reports of FPIS limit hike for the Indian bond market

Market Wrap: 21/02/2018 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Feb):10389 (+45; +0.44%)

(NS: 10397; Q2FY18 EPS: 391; Q2FY18 PE: 26.59; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Jan):24916 (+56; +0.23%)

(BNS: 24937; Q2FY18 EPS: 867; Q2FY18 PE: 28.76; Abv 3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 22/02/2018: Feb-Fut/SPOT (Key Technical Levels)

Updated: 07:55

SGX-NF: 10335; (-54 points)

(Gap down on negative global cues amid surging US bond yields)

Expected BNF opening: 24790

Feb-Fut/SPOT (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF: 10290/10245*-10160/10070

Resistance for NF: 10435/10495*-10535/10585

Support for BNF: 24800/24650*- 24450/24200

Resistance for BNF: 25000/25200-25500/25650

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10455 area for a further rally towards 10495-10535 and 10585-10625 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10435-10395 area, NF may fall towards 10300-10245 and 10160-10070 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25200 area for a further rally towards 25500-25650 and 25875-26075 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25150-25050 area, BNF may fall towards 25000-24800 and 24650-24450/24200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).


The Indian market (Nifty Fut-Feb/India-50) closed around 103389 on Wednesday (21st Feb), jumped by almost 0.45% after a sharp recovery from the day low of 10341 on exporters amid higher USD and short covering ahead of FNO expiry after recent steep corrections on PNB “loot” (theft/loan fraud).

Almost 60% of Nifty earnings are now export-heavy and thus a stronger USD is good for the Nifty, although it may be bad for the overall Indian economy being import oriented. Indian market made an opening high of around 10410 on positive Asian cues earlier in the day on higher USD.

The Indian market was also boosted by reports of FPIS limit hike for the GSEC bonds:

The smart recovery in the Indian market also came after reports that RBI may ease (increase) the FPIS (foreign portfolio investors) limit by March-April for the Indian bond markets, which is now under intense bloodbath and offering the highest yield among the Asian emerging markets (EM). The current FPIS limit is now at 5%.

On Wednesday, benchmark Indian 10YGSEC bond yield soared to 7.710%, the highest in two years on the concern of shrinking banking liquidity, the huge burden of NPA, recurring state bailouts of the PSBS and the breach of fiscal deficit. The Indian bond market was also worried about a hawkish RBI minutes, set to be released after the market hours.

But the market is also concerned about surging US bond yields, now eyeing the 3% level, which may prompt FPIS to shift their attention to fund the fiscal deficit of US rather than an EM or India as EM currency may also devalue significantly.

The Indian market may have also boosted by upbeat comments from the UP investor conference attended by the PM and leading business houses of the country. Apart from higher USD, tech (IT) stocks were also boosted by optimistic outlook by NASCOM.

After the market hours, RBI released its February MPC minutes, which may be also termed as hawkish. RBI is clearly concerned about higher inflationary pressure on the economy amid an ongoing surge in oil, abnormal wage growth (HRA-house rent allowance) for the government workforce, higher MSP (minimum support price for the agro-commodities) and fiscal slippages. RBI is also worried about subdued capacity utilization.

RBI also thinks that as India’s real rate is now hovering around 1% (repo rate-CPI) there is not so much scope of any rate cut (policy action) in the coming days as inflation trajectory is also expected to be on the elevated side.

On Wednesday, Nifty was supported by TCS, ITC, RIL, HDFC, HCL Tech, Infy, SBI, Tech-M, ICICI Bank and Eicher Motors by almost 58 points altogether.

Overall, on Wednesday Indian market was supported by banks and financials (short covering in PSBS), FMCG, exporters (techs/RIL), media, energies (higher oil), while it was dragged by automakers (interest rate sensitive), metals (concern of US protectionism and import duties), pharma (renewed concern about US FDA inspection), reality and infra stocks.




SGX-NF


BNF


USDJPY


Wednesday, 21 February 2018

Market Mantra: Nifty and Bank Nifty Future (21_02_2018)

Market Mantra: 21/02/2018 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 10375 (+35)

For the Day: updated: 11:00

Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF: 10300/10245*-10160/10070

Resistance for NF: 10435/10495*-10535/10585

Support for BNF: 24800/24650*- 24450/24200

Resistance for BNF: 25000/25200-25500/25650


Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10455 area for a further rally towards 10495-10535 and 10585-10625 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10435-10395 area, NF may fall towards 10300-10245 and 10160-10070 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25200 area for a further rally towards 25500-25650 and 25875-26075 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25150 area, BNF may fall towards 25000-24800 and 24650-24450/24200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).



SGX-NF


BNF


SPX-500



Nifty slips as RBI goes for tightening on overseas borrowing rules after PNB saga

Market Wrap: 20/02/2018 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Feb):10340 (-39; -0.37%)

(NS: 10360; Q2FY18 EPS: 391; Q2FY18 PE: 26.50; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Jan):24838 (-219; -0.88%)

(BNS: 24874; Q2FY18 EPS: 867; Q2FY18 PE: 28.69; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 21/02/2018: Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Updated: 07:35

SGX-NF: 10368; +28 points

(Gap up on positive Asian cues)

Expected BNF opening: 24900

Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF: 10300/10245*-10160/10070

Resistance for NF: 10435/10495*-10535/10585

Support for BNF: 24800/24650* & 24450/24200

Resistance for BNF: 25000/25200-25500/25650

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10455 area for a further rally towards 10495-10535 & 10585-10625 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10435-10395 area, NF may fall towards 10300-10245 & 10160-10070 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25200 area for a further rally towards 25500-25650 & 25875-26075 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25150 area, BNF may fall towards 25000-24800 & 24650-24450/24200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty Fut-Feb/India-50) closed around 10340 on Tuesday (20th Feb), slips by almost 39 points (-0.37%) after RBI & the Government took some deleveraging steps for corporate India in the wake of PNB loan fraud saga. 

As par reports, RBI may tighten overseas borrowing approvals. RBI is in advance talks to set up debt management office and may introduce a bill on debt management office by FY-19; RBI, Fin Min met last week on debt management office roadmap.

Subsequently, Indian 10Y bond yield soared to almost 7.68%, highest since Feb’16 on the concern of shrinking liquidity in the system and Indian market also slips to the day low of 10332; earlier it made an opening session high of 10425 on muted global cues amid higher bond yields. Indian rupee also tumbled to 3 months low and USDINR soared to around 64.90.

The Indian government is now blaming auditors for the PNB fiasco in addition to the RBI. On the other side, RBI is now shifting the onus on the banks.

RBI has formed a special committee to look into these types of loan fraud and NPA divergence/classification as observed by its own audit and that of the banks. RBI may also curb overseas borrowing spree of Indian corporates on currency volatility and higher US interest/bond rates.

Apart from deep repercussions from PNB saga, the market may be also concerned about any potential MSCI action such as reduction of Indian weightage in its global index after SEBI barred any foreign exchange (SGX) to trade Indian securities. As par the Indian government, MSCI is being perturbed as their business interest is getting affected.

Overall, imposition of LTCGT (long-term capital gain tax), breach of fiscal deficit and also “trust deficit” on Indian banking system after repeated incidents of high profile corporate loan frauds and the deep-rooted corruption in the system have impacted the market sentiment and FIIS are now on selling mode on every rise; valuations are also stretched amid mixed Q3 report card.

Also, the general public mood is not good after DeMo, GST and repeated banking frauds as PNB “loot” (theft) are now getting murkier & political day-by-day. People are lining up in front of PNB to withdraw their hard earned money as they have lost confidence in the functioning of the PNB, the 2nd largest public sector bank in India.


On Tuesday, Indian market was helped by exporters/techs/MNC (higher USD), media (M&A boost), metals, PSBS (short covering after steep correction and government guarantee despite repeated frauds), cement (upbeat report card from Ambuja cement), consumption and mixed energies while dragged by private banks, financials, automakers, FMCG, mixed pharma, reality; RIL also dragged on buzz of NPA laden and controversial Eros media take over for Rs.1 bln.








SGX-NF


BNF


USDJPY